Comparison of the Cheng and Lee Fuzzy Time Series Methods for Predicting Clean Water Supply in Asahan Regency

Rafika Sari Prayetno; Fibri Rakhmawati

doi:10.54209/jatilima.v7i03.1631

Rafika Sari Prayetno Universitas Islam Negeri Sumatera Utara
Fibri Rakhmawati Universitas Islam Negeri Sumatera Utara

DOI: https://doi.org/10.54209/jatilima.v7i03.1631

Keywords: Cheng, Clean Water, Lee, Fuzzy Time Series, Forecasting

Article Metrics

Abstract view : 323 times

Abstract

This study compares the performance of the Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) Cheng and Lee methods in forecasting the distribution, production, and sales of clean water at Perumda Tirta Silaupiasa, Asahan Regency. The research utilized monthly secondary data from January 2023 to April 2025. Data analysis was conducted using R-Studio software, and forecasting accuracy was evaluated through the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results show that both methods achieved a high level of accuracy, with MAPE values below 3%. However, the Cheng method consistently outperformed the Lee method, recording MAPE values of 2.28% (distribution), 1.59% (production), and 1.63% (sales), while the Lee method produced slightly higher values of 2.45%, 1.83%, and 1.77% for the same variables. These findings demonstrate that the Cheng method is more adaptive in capturing fluctuations in clean water data, especially during periods of sudden changes. This research provides practical recommendations for improving clean water supply management in regions with dynamic operational conditions

References

Andika, F., Nurviana, N., & Sari, R. P. (2024). Perbandingan Model Chen dan Lee pada Metode Fuzzy Time Series untuk Peramalan Nilai Tukar Petani (NTP) di Provinsi Aceh. Jurnal Sains Matematika Dan Statistika, 10(1), 71.
https://doi.org/10.24014/jsms.v10i1.23463
Fauzi, F., Agustina, D., & Nur, I. M. (2021). Evaluasi Metode Fuzzy Time Series Cheng Dan Ruey Chyn Tsaur (Evaluation Of Cheng and Ruey Chyn Tsaur’s Fuzzy Time Series Method). Variance: Journal of Statistics and I’s Applications, 3(2), 61–72. https://doi.org/10.30598/variancevol3iss2
Hajjah, A., & Marlim, Y. N. (2021). Analisis Error Terhadap Peramalan Data Penjualan. Techno.Com, 20(1), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.33633/tc.v20i1.4054
Ihsanuddin, A. D., Ispriyanti, D., & Tarno, T. (2023). Penerapan Metode Fuzzy Time Series Menggunakan Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm Untuk Peramalan Indeks Saham Lq45. Jurnal Gaussian, 12(1), 10–19. https://doi.org/10.14710/j.gauss.12.1.10-19
Kornita, S. E. (2020). Strategi Pemenuhan Kebutuhan Masyarakat terhadap Air Bersih di Kabupaten Bengkalis. Jurnal Samudra Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 11(2), 166–181. https://doi.org/10.33059/jseb.v11i2.1883
Lusiana, A., & Yuliarty, P. (2020). PENERAPAN METODE PERAMALAN (FORECASTING) PADA PERMINTAAN ATAP di PT X. Industri Inovatif : Jurnal Teknik Industri, 10(1), 11–20. https://doi.org/10.36040/industri.v10i1.2530
Muhammad, M., Wahyuningsih, S., & Siringoringo, M. (2021). Peramalan Nilai Tukar Petani Subsektor Peternakan Menggunakan Fuzzy Time Series Lee. Jambura Journal of Mathematics, 3(1), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.34312/jjom.v3i1.5940
Putri, I. A., El Maidah, N., & Ariful Furqon, M. (2024). Penerapan Metode Fuzzy Time Series Cheng Pada Peramalan Inflasi di Indonesia. Komputika : Jurnal Sistem Komputer, 13(2), 183–191. https://doi.org/10.34010/komputika.v13i2.12108
Rahmawati, Inayati, S., Yuliana, & Hanafiah, A. (2021). Prediction of the number of participants bpjs recipient of assistance budget using the fuzzy time series cheng method. Barekeng, 15(2), 373–384.
https://doi.org/10.30598/barekengvol15iss2pp373-384
Ramadhani, D. R., Rakhmawati, F., & Aprilia, R. (2023). Prediction of Clean Water Supply Using the Fuzzy Time Series Cheng Method at PDAM Tirta Silau Piasa. Jurnal Matematika, Statistika Dan Komputasi, 20(2), 340–350.
https://doi.org/10.20956/j.v20i2.32071
Sarbaini, S., Yanti, D., & Nazaruddin. (2023). Prediksi Harga Beras Belida Di Kota Pekanbaru Menggunakan Fuzzy Time Series Cheng. Jurnal Teknologi Dan Manajemen Industri Terapan, 2(3), 234–241. https://doi.org/10.55826/tmit.v2i3.183
Sari, A. S. N., & Setiawan, E. P. (2024). Comparison of Fuzzy Time Series Lee, Chen, and Singh on Forecasting Foreign Tourist Arrivals to Indonesia in 2023. Jurnal Matematika, Statistika Dan Komputasi, 21(1), 10–32. https://doi.org/10.20956/j.v21i1.34914
Tursina, T., Septiriana, R., & Varian, I. (2023). Prediksi Indeks Harga Konsumen Menggunakan Metode Fuzzy Time Series Cheng. Jurnal Locus Penelitian Dan Pengabdian, 2(1), 51–59. https://doi.org/10.58344/locus.v2i1.850
Utami, H. C., Agung Cahyadi, T., & Ernawati, R. (2023). Peramalan Harga Batubara Menggunakan Fuzzy Time Series Lee. Jurnal Sumberdaya Bumi Berkelanjutan, 2(1), 67–77. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.31284/j.semitan.j.2023.v2i1.5148
Virgianti, V., & Martha, S. (2021). Penerapan Fuzzy Time Series Chen Average Based Pada Peramalan Curah Hujan. Buletin Ilmiah Math. Stat. Dan Terapannya (Bimaster), 10(4), 485–494. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.26418/bbimst.v10i4.50913.